Climate?driven range shifts reduce persistence of competitors in a perennial plant community

Forecasting the impacts of climate change on species persistence in diverse natural communities requires a way to account for indirect effects mediated through interactions. In particular, we expect experience major changes competition as they track favorable climates. Here, combine experimental data with recently developed theoretical framework based coexistence theory measure impact climate-driven range shifts alpine plant under change. We transplanted three co-dominant perennial five elevations, creating maximum 5°C increase average growing-season temperature. statistically modeled species' demographic rates response environment and interpolated intrinsic ranges—the environmental mapping reproduction absence competition. used low-density population growth rates—species' initial rate invasion into an established community—as metric persistence. Further analysis (LGRs) allowed us parse direct from by shifting Our models predict qualitatively different each conditions which are maximized where zero. Overall, is predicted (competition free) all species, warmer wetter favorability habitat. However, these benefits entirely negated increased arising greater overlap between competitors their ranges. Species were highly dispersal limited, can prevent tracking ranges reducing spread rates. Yet limitation also promoted because it promotes mechanisms. study demonstrates complex pathways altering competitive environment, highlights how LGRs help disentangle impacts.